Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that polarised the country and triggered disorder, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the political, financial and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely split population where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim such a time is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in universities but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners want to engage even with the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unity or the current situation. They writes two articles that strive for objectivity in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the case against, marshalling financial and societal figures, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions encompass national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented the writer. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they prefer unification but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his era is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid points, he stated. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will ultimately be defeated but each side has got something to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
