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Whenever the wind gusts from the east from Belarus, Lithuania braces for problems.

That is when enormous inflatables are dispatched across the border, with crates of cheap cigarettes dangling beneath.

Over the past 10 weeks, this unauthorized aerial activity has compelled Lithuania's main airport into closure 15 times, affecting thousands of travellers.

On one occasion, the national skies was shut down entirely for a lengthy 11 hours.

However, the officials are convinced they are confronting something far more hostile than simple smugglers.

They contend the balloons have been turned into tools of disruption in an manifestation of covert aggression by Belarus, Russia's closest ally.

Emergency Response

The Lithuanian administration has declared an official alert.

While balloons have been used by smugglers previously, their numbers increased dramatically this October.

"Naturally it began as criminal enterprise, but we've seen more than once how Belarus exploits criminal networks to impact bordering nations," a senior official stated.

The official noted the balloons are sent from locations that help them best "target" Lithuania's main airport, situated just 30km from the border.

"If the goal was to conduct a contraband run, you'd do it in the woods or marshes, not directly at our airport!" the minister argued.

Instead, there is a view that the balloons represent a form of diplomatic leverage on Europe's border region.

"This is viewed as a pressure tool: 'You have a border with us, we can cause you {huge problems|significant disruption|major issues'," the official said. "What they're doing is really entering the military and security field."

Nocturnal Operations

Now, each evening, border units deploy in the border zone.

The balloons are most common during the night.

Patrols set up temporary roadblocks on isolated lanes, inspecting drivers' documents and examining vehicles in search of anyone involved to the smuggling networks.

The balloons fly too high to make intercepting them with firearms a viable or cost-effective option.

Consequently, the government has announced a substantial reward to any company that can devise how to intercept them.

Currently, teams use advanced tracking systems to track the balloons and attempt to apprehend smugglers at the landing sites.

Soon, new legal penalties for acts of sabotage should also serve as a preventive measure.

Political Objectives

The border itself is now marked by a tall metal fence, with security wire and fortifications.

This enhanced fortification is a clear sign of how Lithuania now considers its neighbour as adversarial.

Not far away, the leader of Belarus has dismissed all talk of hybrid warfare as "fabricated".

He recently attributed the activity to "bandit" smugglers, saying they were simply seeking a profit and finding innovative ways to overcome the new security fence.

Lithuania is skeptical, partly due to previous incidents.

In 2021, migrants were assisted to cross into Lithuania and Poland in large numbers, provoking a deliberate crisis.

"Now they are doing a series of one or two balloons every 30 minutes, aimed directly at the airport," explained a security official.

"{In Belarus... if they were interested in stopping it they could do it tomorrow. But they don't. That suggests it benefits them."

The prevailing theory is that Belarus is trying to bully its way into easing international restrictions.

"They want to draw diplomatic focus and compel us to change our stance on Belarus," is how one minister views the dramatic increase of balloons.

The EU does not recognise the Belarusian leader as president following disputed elections in 2020 and a subsequent crackdown.

Sanctions were imposed then and strengthened later when Belarus assisted Russia's war of Ukraine.

"{First, they want to end the international isolation of the regime and secondly, of course, the sanctions," the minister argued.

Public Discontent

Currently, travellers and airlines must adjust.

"This is something completely new for the aviation sector," stated the airport CEO.

One airline has already moved its charter flights, and another has reduced its evening service.

Revenue losses for all impacted companies are projected to reach €2m by year's end.

"There are direct financial costs, but the even higher risk is if passengers start to lose confidence in air travel," he admitted.

Already, travellers check a new webpage for wind forecasts and balloon probability before booking flights.

"It's stressful, it makes me a little bit nervous. I'd just like to get home as planned," one passenger said.

"I am convinced this is a hybrid attack on us," said a local resident. "I think for them it's really funny to fly those balloons and then mock us."

Her words suggest that another aim of such hybrid activity – undermining confidence – is also working, and perhaps harder to defend against.

"This is effectively probing the limits of the alliance: looking at how we protect against these kinds of things," said another citizen.

"And we can't even deal with simple balloons. We're not even prepared for the fundamental challenges."