Behind the Ceremony of Putin's New Delhi Trip: The Indo-Russian Relationship Which Has Frayed.

This diplomatic language and visuals from Russian leader Vladimir Putin's latest visit to India projected a strong two-way relationship. Indian PM Narendra Modi greeted Putin at the tarmac with a embrace, and the leaders took a car journey, echoing a familiar diplomatic gesture. In his address, Modi referred to Putin as "a dear friend" and described the India-Russia connection as a "lodestar", built on "shared respect and deep trust" that had "weathered the test of time". This marked Putin's tenth visit to India during his 25-year rule and his twentieth meeting with Modi after the latter assumed office in 2014.

A Chasm Between Pageantry and Reality

Nevertheless, a clear divide persists between the symbolism and the actual content of this alliance. While Putin pledged "continuous fuel supplies" to India, the country's companies are actually purchasing less Russian oil in the face of external tariffs and sanctions. The two countries concluded numerous agreements in areas like migration, health, food security, maritime cooperation, and academic collaboration. But, expected announcements on significant defence deals failed to happen. India has abstained from any substantial defence agreements with Russia since the 2022's offensive of Ukraine, a trend driven by holdups in shipments of platforms and components as Moscow focuses on its own defence requirements.

A Partnership With Diminished Strategic Weight

These developments points to that the India-Russia dynamic no longer carries the identical geopolitical clout it previously possessed. During the Cold War, India maintained special barter arrangements and economic entry to the Soviet Union and its satellite states. This privileged alliance reached its pinnacle in 1971 with a Pact of Peace, Friendship and Cooperation, signed ahead of a war with Pakistan during which Islamabad was backed by the US and China. Although both countries have attempted to preserve a appearance of this special bond through a "special and privileged" alliance declared in 2010, the truth is that their interaction does not have the same significance as New Delhi has significantly strengthened relations with the Western world.

Diversification and Inherent Contradictions

New Delhi is not expected to cut its important relationship with Moscow. Yet, as Western pressure increases on India to curtail its imports of Russian oil, both nations are seeking to broaden the relationship into new sectors. On Putin's visit, they announced an economic cooperation programme lasting until 2030, aiming to make their relations "more diversified, equitable and sustainable". This includes enhancing market access for Indian products to rectify a trade imbalance heavily skewed in Russia's favor. Cooperation between the two covers several key strategic fields – from aerospace and atomic energy to defence and agriculture.

Sentimental Affinity and Seen Dependability

At an ideological plane, a significant amount of closeness with Russia remains, particularly among senior generations of policymakers in New Delhi who remember Moscow's pivotal support during the Cold War. This has translated into a certain level of sympathy for the Russian narrative on the Ukraine war. Amid ongoing tensions between India and the US, where American officials have issued critical comments about the Indian economy, many in India see Russia as a more reliable partner.

The challenge, of course, is the ongoing war in Ukraine.

The extensive joint statement issued during Putin's visit contained no reference to Ukraine, despite it ironically described the relationship as an "anchor of global peace and stability". Despite Modi's often-repeated assertion that "this is not the era of war", New Delhi's overt actions regarding the conflict have been limited.

Squaring the Circle: New Delhi's Foreign Policy Tightrope

This situation highlights the underlying complexities in India's international stance. The nation is poised to conclude a free trade agreement with the EU, after a comparable agreement with the UK earlier year. On the sidelines, India, Australia, and Canada announced a trilateral technology initiative. There are far more Indian students in the US than in Russia, although efforts are being made to boost people-to-people contacts between India and Russia.

How will India resolve this complex equation? New Delhi will be hoping that current peace negotiations will succeed, leading to a cessation of fighting and the removal of a key thorn in its relations with the Western bloc. But, even if a peace deal is achieved, if it fails of a "fair resolution" that upholds Ukraine's independence and borders, scrutiny of the Indo-Russian relationship will certainly continue in European and American capitals.