Keir Starmer's Allies Launch 'Halt Andy Burnham' Effort to Prevent Manchester Mayor's Commons Re-entry
Loyalists of Labour leader Keir Starmer have reportedly set in motion a concerted initiative to prevent Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Greater Manchester Mayor, from making a return to the House of Commons. This move comes after the stepping down of a Manchester MP, which has triggered an impending byelection.
Major Hurdles in the Candidate Selection Procedure
Multiple members on the party's ruling NEC have apparently suggested it would be highly challenging for Mr. Burnham to navigate the selection procedure. This is primarily due to the significant number of supporters of the Prime Minister on the body who are desperate to head off any future leadership challenge.
The Labour hierarchy is said to have mobilised following the announcement of the MP's intended resignation, with party figures and MPs raising concerns about the considerable financial cost and political risk of a subsequent election for mayor in Greater Manchester.
The Mayor's Aspirations and Party Concerns
Andy Burnham has made no secret of his political ambitions. Last year, he caused consternation within No 10 and among cabinet ministers when he remarked that numerous MPs had encouraged him to run for the party leadership.
It has long been believed that he is seeking a seat in the Commons to potentially contest the party leadership should a contest to Sir Keir emerge. However, supporters of the Greater Manchester Mayor have cautioned against exaggerating the extent of any planning, suggesting he is passionate about his current role and would solely re-enter Westminster if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," one ally said.
Current Climate and Public Approval
Amid polls suggesting Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs despondent about Labour's fate at the next election, Andy Burnham stands out as the sole prominent Labour personality with favourable ratings with the public.
If Mr. Burnham choose to stand, multiple hurdles remain. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the odds are stacked against him—and then secure victory in the byelection against challenges from Reform UK and pro-Gaza independents, all before any potential bid for the leadership.
The 'Stop Andy' Campaign
High-ranking Labour sources have indicated that a "Stop Andy" operation is already under way, with the party machinery being closely managed by senior aides of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister personally said that the byelection process was in its "initial phases" and told his MPs to cease discussion of possible leadership challenges.
Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's resignation was confirmed, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Financial and Political Dangers
NEC members have allegedly cited not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could divert around ÂŁ500,000 in party funding from other crucial elections across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," one source said.
A number of insiders also expressed fears about Nigel Farage’s party attempting to fill any vacancy created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major political win for them.
Union Influence and Democratic Concerns
As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to run. It is also possible the committee could enforce an women-only shortlist to prevent his candidacy.
Yet, one Burnham ally counselled against assuming the NEC would simply reject him, even though Sir Keir's team is widely thought to dominate it.
The unions occupy a sizable proportion of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are for now remaining quiet, insiders indicated they would be opposed to anything perceived as interference from Downing Street.
The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
Electoral Challenges
The seat in question holds a considerable Labour majority. However, Reform UK is expected to launch a strong challenge, capitalising on support in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on stronger footing in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter some pressure from pro-Gaza independents.
If Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to launch a leadership challenge, a requirement that is not guaranteed given he is viewed with scepticism by some on the backbenches.
The resigning MP stated he was stepping down due to deteriorating mental health, which had made it untenable for him to carry on in his role. He is also subject to a parliamentary standards investigation concerning his involvement in an offensive online group.
