Moving from Reluctant Respect to Disquiet: Moscow Considers the Fall of Maduro.
A surprise raid on the capital in the dead of night, ending with the seizure of the country's president. Within a day, the intervening power announces its plan to rule indefinitely.
That was the scenario Vladimir Putin envisaged his large-scale offensive of Ukraine playing out in early 2022. In reality, it was Donald Trump who pulled it off in Venezuela, in a operation labeled illegal internationally, whisking away the Kremlin's longtime partner the Venezuelan president, who now faces trial in New York.
Public Fury, Private Calculations
Officially, Moscow's representatives have expressed fury, condemning the attack as a flagrant violation of global norms and a worrying development. But behind the rhetoric, there is a feeling of grudging respect – and even jealousy – at the effectiveness of a coup that Russia once planned, but failed to execute due to a series of intelligence blunders and Ukraine's strong resistance.
“The mission was executed competently,” wrote the Kremlin-aligned online channel a popular military blog. “Most likely, this is exactly how our 'special military operation' was meant to unfold: fast, dramatic and decisive. It’s difficult to imagine Russia's top general expected to be fighting for this long.”
These observations have fed a mood of soul-searching among pro-war voices, with some publicly wondering how Russia's promised blitzkrieg in Ukraine morphed into a protracted and deadly war.
A pro-Kremlin tech entrepreneur, said she felt “shame” on Russia's behalf given how brazen the American action appeared to be. “In the space of a day, the US detained Venezuela's leader and seemingly wrapped up his own 'military mission,’” she wrote.
A Network Unravels
For over twenty years, Venezuela worked to build a network of partners opposed to Washington – from Moscow and Beijing to Cuba and Iran – in the hope of helping to shape a new axis capable of standing up to Washington.
However, even with Moscow's top diplomat vowing backing for Maduro's regime as recently as late December, hardly any experts ever believed Moscow would intervene meaningfully.
Bogged down in Ukraine, Russia has, recently, watched other important partners lose influence or weaken sharply – from Bashar al-Assad to an increasingly weakened Iran – exposing the limits of the Kremlin's global influence.
“For Russia, the circumstances are profoundly awkward,” said Fyodor Lukyanov. “Venezuela is a close partner and fellow traveler, and the two leaders have longstanding ties, leaving Moscow with little choice but to voice condemnation. Yet providing any tangible support to a country so far away is simply impossible – for practical and operational reasons.”
Focus on the Main Front
There is also a deeper strategic consideration. The Kremlin's main focus, experts note, is Ukraine – and keeping a productive dialogue with the US administration on that front far outweighs the fate of Caracas.
“Putin and Trump are presently engaged with a much more significant issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's sympathies towards Caracas, it is not going to jeopardize a much larger strategic game with a vital counterpart over what it sees as a secondary concern,” Lukyanov added.
Tangible Costs and New Threats
Still, Russia's diminished role in Venezuela carries multiple concrete consequences for Moscow. If a US-friendly government takes power in Caracas, US defense specialists could examine large parts of the Venezuelan armed forces' arsenal, including sophisticated weaponry supplied by Russia.
This arsenal encompasses S-300VM anti-aircraft systems sent over a decade ago, as well as an unknown quantity of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems provided during late 2025.
Moscow has also provided billions of dollars to Venezuela, much of which it is now unlikely ever to be recovered.
A more pressing concern for Moscow, however, is crude oil: American control over Venezuela's enormous oilfields could push global prices lower, endangering one of Russia's most important sources of income.
“If our American 'partners' gain access to Venezuela’s oilfields, over 50% of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote Oleg Deripaska. “And it appears their plan will be to ensure that the price of our oil does not rise above $50 a barrel.”
A Bleak Silver Lining?
Still, some in Moscow see room for a grim silver lining. Trump's kidnapping of Maduro, they argue, could strike a decisive blow to the post-war global system and usher in a more nakedly power-based world order – one where power, rather than rules, shapes outcomes.
“Team Trump is ruthless and pragmatic in advancing its national interests,” wrote Dmitry Medvedev with endorsement. “Removing Maduro had no connection to drugs – only oil, and they openly admit this. The law of the strongest is evidently more powerful than ordinary justice.”
